Is grading worth it: the price below which no grade can pay the fee
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The chance of anything worse is whatever the first two leave over, so you only have to think about the two grades you are hoping for.
Results
| Chance of anything worse, in per cent | — |
| Average multiplier across the grades | — |
| What the card is worth after the fee, on average | — |
| Gain over selling it as it is | — |
| Ungraded price below which nothing pays | — |
| Submissions that come back worse, in per cent | — |
The fifth row is the one to take away, and it is a price rather than a grade. Because the fee is the same whatever comes back, the decision is settled by what the card is worth before it goes anywhere: below that figure no grade can pay the fee, and above it the grades only decide how much you make. People argue about which grade they will get when the argument that matters is about the card they are holding.
What each outcome is worth
| Chance, in per cent | Multiplier | Worth after the fee | Gain over selling it as it is |
|---|
Look at how much of the average sits in the first row. With the starting figures the top grade turns up once in seven submissions and carries almost the whole gain, while the bottom row loses money a third of the time. That is why the chance of the top grade is the number to argue over, and it is also the number people estimate worst: halving it from fifteen to five takes the gain from a hundred and forty three down to forty one and pushes the break-even price from eighty two to a hundred and forty two.
Nothing here knows the condition of your card, and that is the input doing all the work. The page will happily take an optimistic chance of the top grade and hand back an optimistic answer, so the honest use of it is to try the pessimistic number too and see whether the decision survives.
How do I know if a card is worth grading?
Compare its ungraded price with the break-even price the page works out, which is the fee divided by how much more than one the average multiplier is. Below that figure the fee cannot pay for itself whatever grade comes back.
It is a price and not a grade, and that is the point: because the fee is the same whatever returns, the decision is settled by the card you are holding rather than by the grade you are hoping for.
Why does the break-even price rise so fast for ordinary cards?
Because it divides by how much the average multiplier exceeds one, and that difference goes to nothing for a card the grade barely improves. A multiplier of three puts the break-even at a third of the fee, and a multiplier of one and a bit puts it many times above.
So a card that grading merely tidies up has to be expensive before the fee makes sense, while a card that a top grade transforms can be worth submitting quite cheaply.
| Average multiplier | Break-even ungraded price |
|---|---|
| 1,05 | 2000,00 |
| 1,20 | 500,00 |
| 1,50 | 200,00 |
| 2,00 | 100,00 |
| 2,50 | 66,67 |
| 3,00 | 50,00 |
Which number matters most?
The chance of the top grade, and it is also the one people estimate worst. With the starting figures it turns up once in about seven submissions and carries almost the whole gain.
Halving it from fifteen to five takes the average gain from a hundred and forty three down to forty one and pushes the break-even price from eighty two up to a hundred and forty two. If the decision only survives the optimistic guess, it has not survived.
What is the page not accounting for?
The condition of your card, which is the input doing all the work and the one thing it cannot see. It will take an optimistic chance of the top grade and hand back an optimistic answer without complaint.
It also treats the multipliers as prices you would actually receive, and knows nothing about the wait, the risk in the post, or a market that may not be the same when the card comes back.
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