Why Blackjack Success Is About More Than the Turn of the Cards

Mathematicians are pretty darn good at working out odds for games of chance. Even games considered haphazard, like roulette, which features billions of possible outcomes over a longer session, can have their probabilities whittled down to an equation. The great Alan Turing – he of the Enigma Code fame – was one of those who was obsessed with the idea of predicting the outcome of the roulette wheel. But while predicting the outcome is always in doubt, the probabilities of winning and losing can be easily summed up.

Blackjack is a little different, however. The simplicity of the game belies something that still gets debated today – who has the advantage, the player or the house? Most estimates put the house edge of blackjack at around 0.5%. Now, we will get to how they arrive at that figure in a moment. But for now its enough to say that it’s quite generous compared to other casino games. American roulette, for example, has a house edge of over 5%.

Of course, in these examples, we are talking about real live dealer blackjack, and not software-based games. On the face of it, the participants (the dealer, and the player) have the same goal – reaching a score of 21, or as close as possible to 21. However, the dealer has to abide by certain rules, such as standing on a soft 17, whereas the player can do pretty much whatever they like.

So, where does the house edge come from? Normally, the house edge is deemed to be in favor of the house because the player acts first. This means the player can go bust without any intervention from the dealer. That fact makes the house edge around 0.5% in its purest form.

However, most studies estimate the true house edge to be around 2%, which is still generous compared to most casino games. Why? Because the majority of players will not play with optimum strategy. They might have had a few drinks at the Bellagio before playing, or they may be newbies to the game. But for whatever reason, the majority play badly (relatively speaking), and that moves the dial toward the casino.

And yet, might the opposite be true? If a player plays well, can the house edge be eliminated? That question still vexes people today, and it has even made it into legal and regulatory discourse. After all, if blackjack is a game of skill, then it should not be deemed a form of gambling (in legal terms).

Nonetheless, there are proponents out there who believe that their optimum strategies can turn the odds in their favor. What they effectively mean is card counting. Now, you may have seen casino movies like Rain Man, where card counting has been portrayed as banned, unethical, and even illegal – it isn’t. Moreover, it’s not even that complicated. All it requires is a strategy to keep a broad idea in mind of how many high cards and low cards have been dealt. Learning a card counting strategy is as easy as learning a system to remember telephone numbers. You could master it in an hour.

The idea behind card counting is to have a general idea of what’s coming out of the deck. If lots of Kings, Queens, Jacks, and 10s have already been dealt, then you know it is more likely to see lower-value cards coming next – it’s that simple. Of course, the superior players can hone their craft to be even more exact.

So, why doesn’t everyone count cards? Well, there are a number of reasons for that. Casinos may use multiple decks (up to 8), making any card-counting strategy less effective. Moreover, some casinos might constantly shuffle the cards, making it more difficult again. However, many casinos still play blackjack with a single deck, and that’s what the pro players are on the lookout for.

In the end, the balance of probability means the casino will likely win. But blackjack is a game of skill and luck, and some believe the former plays a role more so than is commonly held. What is indisputable, though, is that playing with the best possible strategy will increase your chances of winning compared to someone playing without a solid strategy. Whatever you think of blackjack, it’s not just about the luck of the draw.